(Sorry, can't resist putting a link to this song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnlzG3TwY8g )
Seriously now. Economic Collapse is not inevitable even in social isolation.
Why Social Isolation?
Everyone knows the answer to this, at the current time of writing as the world is in the clutches of the serious COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus) PANDEMIC. Governments has not choice (they think) to enforce social isolation rules. This is one way to reduce the spread of infection.
A great article in http://endtimesforecaster.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-you-will-be-exposed.html . Thoroughly enjoyed that article. My post here, is in no way, oppose to that article. In fact I emphasise here that modelling in that article is great, I agree that most people will get infected in that rate, and grateful for the health tips in that article. My post here is about a tangential thought I would like to share, and no government has yet described or shared my idea below.
So let's explore the idea of pro-longed Social Isolation and De-Bunk the government / media / popular belief that economic collapse will happen. It is not necessarily so!!!
What do humans need at the most basic level?
In Psychology theory, Maslow's Trigangle shows a 5 step Pyramid of human needs. Let's focus on the most basic level - because we are thinking of economic collapse and disaster for humans. So the first level is: "Physiological needs - these are biological requirements for human survival, e.g. air, food, drink, shelter, clothing, warmth, sex, sleep. If these needs are not satisfied the human body cannot function optimally." https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html
In short, let's highlight FOOD and SHELTER (which provides for SLEEP) as the two most important things.
SHELTER - is this under threat while in Social Isolation?
NO. Without considering secondary reasons, the answer is simply no. Many people are confined in their homes. COVID-19 is not a tornado, bushfire, tsunami, volcano, earthquake and so on. Will the physical home/building stand, when COVID-19 is rampant. YES - our homes would not break down. Let's talk about rent and finance later.
FOOD - is this under threat while in Social Isolation?
NO. Farmers in wide open field can still operate. Crops can be harvested. Logistic, Supply Chain, Transportation can still operate. A truck driver is alone, driving large amounts of food from the farms to somewhere. Large amounts of food can be shipped by sea or air and the air-crew, ship-crew are operating in isolation - they don't need to stand close to another human.
Let's consider rents and finance now. Above just included to groups of people that will not struggle to pay rent for their shelter. The farmers and the transportation personnel. No change to their industry fundamentally yet. They are still very much needed.
INFRASTRUCTURE AND BUILDING INDUSTRY - is this under threat while in Social Isolation?
NO. Continuing the chain from above, who is going to provide SHELTER to the farmers, drivers, pilots, the ship crew? The home builders, the brick layers, the plumbers, the tilers, the gardeners, the list is endless. These group of providers work in isolation or in safe social distance. They don't need to be close to each other. Besides the Shelter-related industry above, what about builders of Railway, Ships and shipyards, CARGO Aircrafts, Runways, Dams, Gas lines, Electricity Lines - again an endless list. These workers do not need to stay in close contact - social distancing allows their jobs to function.
FOOD TRANSPORT to the masses -
How do we get food to people individually, since the above only described bulk transportation?
We are already doing this before COVID-19. It's called online shopping. Food can be delivered by supermarket delivery people, contracted delivery people, Gig Economy type of fast-food delivery like UberEats, Foodora, etc. And maybe Amazon's Drone-copters. This is yet another revenue generating industry employing workers who can perform under Social Distancing rules.
So hopefully you get the idea that a large range of industry is still needed and can function under new Social Isolation environment. These are just providing the basic FOOD and SHELTER.
As we move up the hierarchy of basic human needs, a list of other services come into play. These services provide fulfilment of these needs, and also generating revenue and sustaining those industries. Just some examples.
Healthcare - doctors, nurses, psychologists, surgeons, etc. GPs can perform tele-medicine. Hospitals can be designed not to be crowded.
Entertainment - already musicians are performing over the web directly.
Hairdressers, IT Support - OK to operate in social distancing form.
Clothes and other shopping - Online
Warehouses - OK to operate in social distancing form.
Many small businesses, newsagents, florist - OK to operate in social distancing form.
All of the above discussion are about what can continue. The above types of business and economy will not collapse because they are providing a need and therefore also generating income for the people to survive.
Here is the main point of this article and the BIGGEST change that needs to happen, but not impossible. A hint is the Hospitals comment above, that they can be operated in a safe, social distancing way. Now lets consider the following:
OFFICE / WHITE COLLAR JOBS - this is a highly contagious environment, in the tall buildings, in the cities where people are crammed together. In this aspect I most definitely agree with the article referenced above. These people will spread the COVID-19 or other virus to each other and cannot be avoided if OFFICE work is to continue in the same form.
Solution: Work from home. This is not a theory or niche practice. The COVID-19 has made every office worker in the world, at this time of writing, to be working from home. The technology has proven that this is possible.
SCHOOLING / UNIVERSITIES - Don't need to say much - See above.
What about lack of social interaction? People are socially interacting online. Even physical activities like exercise classes or dance parties are online.
Schools and Office Work (White collar) are the two main activities of city-dwelling people and they are the easiest ways to pass the disease. Most of you reading this are living in cities - what do you and your children do most of the day before COVID-19? Most of you go to office to work, and your children go to school. Just this two industries White Collar Office Work and Schooling occupy so much of our activities in the day, yet they DON'T have to be performed in a large gathering of people.
To summarise:
1. White Collar Office Work in concentrated tall building in cities are outdated.
2. Schools and Universities physical classes are an outdated concept.
3. The rest of the economy will survive because they are providing for our needs and can operate with safe social distancing.
Hopefully some Decision / Policy makers will see the benefit of this idea. And Economic Collapse does not need to be so if we can change.
Seriously now. Economic Collapse is not inevitable even in social isolation.
Why Social Isolation?
Everyone knows the answer to this, at the current time of writing as the world is in the clutches of the serious COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus) PANDEMIC. Governments has not choice (they think) to enforce social isolation rules. This is one way to reduce the spread of infection.
A great article in http://endtimesforecaster.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-you-will-be-exposed.html . Thoroughly enjoyed that article. My post here, is in no way, oppose to that article. In fact I emphasise here that modelling in that article is great, I agree that most people will get infected in that rate, and grateful for the health tips in that article. My post here is about a tangential thought I would like to share, and no government has yet described or shared my idea below.
So let's explore the idea of pro-longed Social Isolation and De-Bunk the government / media / popular belief that economic collapse will happen. It is not necessarily so!!!
What do humans need at the most basic level?
In Psychology theory, Maslow's Trigangle shows a 5 step Pyramid of human needs. Let's focus on the most basic level - because we are thinking of economic collapse and disaster for humans. So the first level is: "Physiological needs - these are biological requirements for human survival, e.g. air, food, drink, shelter, clothing, warmth, sex, sleep. If these needs are not satisfied the human body cannot function optimally." https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html
In short, let's highlight FOOD and SHELTER (which provides for SLEEP) as the two most important things.
SHELTER - is this under threat while in Social Isolation?
NO. Without considering secondary reasons, the answer is simply no. Many people are confined in their homes. COVID-19 is not a tornado, bushfire, tsunami, volcano, earthquake and so on. Will the physical home/building stand, when COVID-19 is rampant. YES - our homes would not break down. Let's talk about rent and finance later.
FOOD - is this under threat while in Social Isolation?
NO. Farmers in wide open field can still operate. Crops can be harvested. Logistic, Supply Chain, Transportation can still operate. A truck driver is alone, driving large amounts of food from the farms to somewhere. Large amounts of food can be shipped by sea or air and the air-crew, ship-crew are operating in isolation - they don't need to stand close to another human.
Let's consider rents and finance now. Above just included to groups of people that will not struggle to pay rent for their shelter. The farmers and the transportation personnel. No change to their industry fundamentally yet. They are still very much needed.
INFRASTRUCTURE AND BUILDING INDUSTRY - is this under threat while in Social Isolation?
NO. Continuing the chain from above, who is going to provide SHELTER to the farmers, drivers, pilots, the ship crew? The home builders, the brick layers, the plumbers, the tilers, the gardeners, the list is endless. These group of providers work in isolation or in safe social distance. They don't need to be close to each other. Besides the Shelter-related industry above, what about builders of Railway, Ships and shipyards, CARGO Aircrafts, Runways, Dams, Gas lines, Electricity Lines - again an endless list. These workers do not need to stay in close contact - social distancing allows their jobs to function.
FOOD TRANSPORT to the masses -
How do we get food to people individually, since the above only described bulk transportation?
We are already doing this before COVID-19. It's called online shopping. Food can be delivered by supermarket delivery people, contracted delivery people, Gig Economy type of fast-food delivery like UberEats, Foodora, etc. And maybe Amazon's Drone-copters. This is yet another revenue generating industry employing workers who can perform under Social Distancing rules.
So hopefully you get the idea that a large range of industry is still needed and can function under new Social Isolation environment. These are just providing the basic FOOD and SHELTER.
As we move up the hierarchy of basic human needs, a list of other services come into play. These services provide fulfilment of these needs, and also generating revenue and sustaining those industries. Just some examples.
Healthcare - doctors, nurses, psychologists, surgeons, etc. GPs can perform tele-medicine. Hospitals can be designed not to be crowded.
Entertainment - already musicians are performing over the web directly.
Hairdressers, IT Support - OK to operate in social distancing form.
Clothes and other shopping - Online
Warehouses - OK to operate in social distancing form.
Many small businesses, newsagents, florist - OK to operate in social distancing form.
All of the above discussion are about what can continue. The above types of business and economy will not collapse because they are providing a need and therefore also generating income for the people to survive.
Here is the main point of this article and the BIGGEST change that needs to happen, but not impossible. A hint is the Hospitals comment above, that they can be operated in a safe, social distancing way. Now lets consider the following:
OFFICE / WHITE COLLAR JOBS - this is a highly contagious environment, in the tall buildings, in the cities where people are crammed together. In this aspect I most definitely agree with the article referenced above. These people will spread the COVID-19 or other virus to each other and cannot be avoided if OFFICE work is to continue in the same form.
Solution: Work from home. This is not a theory or niche practice. The COVID-19 has made every office worker in the world, at this time of writing, to be working from home. The technology has proven that this is possible.
SCHOOLING / UNIVERSITIES - Don't need to say much - See above.
What about lack of social interaction? People are socially interacting online. Even physical activities like exercise classes or dance parties are online.
Schools and Office Work (White collar) are the two main activities of city-dwelling people and they are the easiest ways to pass the disease. Most of you reading this are living in cities - what do you and your children do most of the day before COVID-19? Most of you go to office to work, and your children go to school. Just this two industries White Collar Office Work and Schooling occupy so much of our activities in the day, yet they DON'T have to be performed in a large gathering of people.
To summarise:
1. White Collar Office Work in concentrated tall building in cities are outdated.
2. Schools and Universities physical classes are an outdated concept.
3. The rest of the economy will survive because they are providing for our needs and can operate with safe social distancing.
Hopefully some Decision / Policy makers will see the benefit of this idea. And Economic Collapse does not need to be so if we can change.
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